Overnight US stocks declined along with Treasuries as an emerging dispute between Trump and Elon Musk negatively impacted Tesla, pulling down other major tech stocks as well. Although equities rebounded from their lowest points of the session, the Nasdaq 100 dropped by nearly 1%. Tesla's shares plummeted by 14% after Trump suggested terminating Musk's government contracts and subsidies; however, Musk has expressed a desire to cool the situation, with White House sources suggesting that a call between Musk and senior White House representatives and potentially Trump himself will be scheduled today. Prior gains in the stock market were fuelled by optimism that tensions between the US and China might ease following Trump's agreement with Xi Jinping to conduct further trade discussions. Musk and Trump's relationship soured as the president responded to his former advisor's criticism of the Republican tax reform bill, leading to increasingly personal exchanges throughout the day. With the crucial jobs report approaching, a surprising rise in unemployment claims sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve might need to reinstate rate cuts sooner to avert a US recession. Asian stock markets dipped as discussions between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping did not lift investor mood, with many opting to remain cautious ahead of US employment figures. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index decreased by 0.1% on Friday but remains on track for its seventh increase in eight weeks. Hong Kong equities dropped by 0.2%, while stocks in mainland China fell by 0.1%. Investors have been cautious about taking significant risk ahead of the important payrolls report, which could offer insights into whether the Fed can fulfill market anticipations for two interest rate reductions in 2025. Traders also expressed disappointment that the call between Xi and Trump did not yield any notable progress. Trump merely stated that discussions would commence soon at a yet-to-be-determined location as both nations seek to address conflicts over tariffs and rare earth minerals. Regarding trade, Trump acknowledged on Thursday that the relationship with China had become “a little off track,” but stated that now “we’re in very good shape with China and the trade deal.” He noted that further negotiations would take place “shortly” at “a location to be determined.” It remains uncertain whether this call will lead to lasting trade harmony and, importantly, to the shipments of vital minerals required by US businesses.
The major macro event today will be the US Non Farm Payrolls release, with the market currently anticipating just over two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for the remainder of 2025. Goldman Sachs believes “the optimal scenario for stocks today would be a stronger-than-expected report—within a reasonable range of strength. Ideally, the headline number falling between 150k and 200k. A figure below 100k would raise concerns about a potential economic slowdown, likely putting downward pressure on stocks, especially following this week’s weaker data. Conversely, a headline print in the 300k range could trigger a "good data is bad for stocks" reaction, as it may give the Fed more reason to delay rate cuts. A notably weak report would likely have a more detrimental effect on the stock market than an overly strong one. Retail investors have been consistently buying stocks throughout the year, and we don't anticipate this trend changing anytime soon. Based on our data, we believe the only scenario in which retail investors might shift from buying to selling is if job losses become evident”.
Overnight Headlines
Fed Officials Signal Inflation Risks Still Dominate, Argue Against Cuts
Goldman Sachs Reins In Risk Appetite Amid Market Volatility
US Treasury: BoJ Should Continue Tightening To Rebalance Yen
US Treasury Releases FX Policy Report On Major Trading Partners
Trump Hints At Lowering SALT Cap In GOP Tax Bill
Trump Threatens To Revoke Elon Musk’s Federal Contracts
Musk Calls For Trump’s Impeachment As Tesla Tanks Below $1T Cap
Trump Says Russia, Ukraine May Need To ‘Keep Fighting’
Netanyahu Confirms Israel Arming Gaza Clans To Undermine Hamas
Israel Strikes Lebanon In One Of Largest Attacks Since Ceasefire
Iran Orders Missile Materials From China Despite Ongoing Talks
Lululemon Cuts Profit Outlook As Tariffs Raise Costs
Broadcom Sales Jump On Booming AI Demand
UK Bans Bonuses At Thames Water, Five Other Utilities
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1350 (1.1BLN), 1.1370-75 (826M), 1.1400 (2.4BLN)
1.1420-25 (580M), 1.1450 (1BLN), 1.1475 (438M), 1.1500 (3.2BLN)
1.1530 (1BLN), 1.1550 (1BLN), 1.1600 (1.3BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.8250 (470M), 0.8300 (415M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8420-30 (730M)
GBP/USD: 1.3450-60 (761M), 1.3470-80 (201M), 1.3600 (413M)
AUD/USD: 0.6470 (321M), 0.6500-10 (595M)
USD/CAD: 1.3600 (1.1BLN), 1.3625 (225M), 1.3660 (660M), 1.3745-60 (1.2BLN)
USD/JPY: 142.00 (2.1BLN), 142.40 (250M), 142.50-60 (944M)
142.95-143.05 (780M), 143.50 (505M),1.4365 (380M), 143.95-144.00 (875M)
144.50 (674M), 145.00 (776M), 145.75-80 (1BLN), 146.00 (1.4BLN)
CFTC Data As Of 30/5/25
The net long position in Japanese yen stands at 164,012 contracts, while the euro net long position is at 79,474 contracts. The British pound holds a net long position of 35,379 contracts. Conversely, the Swiss franc indicates a net short position of -25,483 contracts, and Bitcoin shows a net short position of -2,274 contracts.
Equity Fund Managers have reduced their net long position in the S&P 500 CME by 17,892 contracts, bringing it down to 854,528 contracts. Moreover, Equity Fund Speculators have decreased their net short position in the S&P 500 CME by 39,763 contracts, resulting in a total of 257,465 contracts.
Speculators have also cut their net short position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 18,143 contracts, which now stands at 53,890 contracts. Similarly, CBOT US Ultrabond Treasury futures' net short position has been lowered by 12,663 contracts to 233,472 contracts. The net short position for CBOT US 2-Year Treasury futures has been trimmed by 147,428 contracts to reach 1,119,903 contracts. Additionally, the net short position for CBOT US 10-Year Treasury futures has been reduced by 81,827 contracts to 769,604 contracts. On the other hand, speculators have increased their net short position in CBOT US 5-Year Treasury futures by 57,296 contracts, leading to a total of 2,333,237 contracts.
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Pivot 5900
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 5900 target 6100
Below 5800 target 5610
EURUSD Pivot 1.11
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 1.11 target 1.19
Below 1.1060 target 1.09
GBPUSD Pivot 1.3290
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 1.3290 target 1.38
Below 1.32 target 1.31
USDJPY Pivot 147
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 147.10 target 148.26
Below 146.53 target 139
XAUUSD Pivot 3365
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 3400 target 3600
Below 3365 target 2981
BTCUSD Pivot 105k
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 105k target 118k
Below 103k target 100kDaily Market Outlook, June 6, 2025
Overnight US stocks declined along with Treasuries as an emerging dispute between Trump and Elon Musk negatively impacted Tesla, pulling down other major tech stocks as well. Although equities rebounded from their lowest points of the session, the Nasdaq 100 dropped by nearly 1%. Tesla's shares plummeted by 14% after Trump suggested terminating Musk's government contracts and subsidies; however, Musk has expressed a desire to cool the situation, with White House sources suggesting that a call between Musk and senior White House representatives and potentially Trump himself will be scheduled today. Prior gains in the stock market were fuelled by optimism that tensions between the US and China might ease following Trump's agreement with Xi Jinping to conduct further trade discussions. Musk and Trump's relationship soured as the president responded to his former advisor's criticism of the Republican tax reform bill, leading to increasingly personal exchanges throughout the day. With the crucial jobs report approaching, a surprising rise in unemployment claims sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve might need to reinstate rate cuts sooner to avert a US recession. Asian stock markets dipped as discussions between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping did not lift investor mood, with many opting to remain cautious ahead of US employment figures. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index decreased by 0.1% on Friday but remains on track for its seventh increase in eight weeks. Hong Kong equities dropped by 0.2%, while stocks in mainland China fell by 0.1%. Investors have been cautious about taking significant risk ahead of the important payrolls report, which could offer insights into whether the Fed can fulfill market anticipations for two interest rate reductions in 2025. Traders also expressed disappointment that the call between Xi and Trump did not yield any notable progress. Trump merely stated that discussions would commence soon at a yet-to-be-determined location as both nations seek to address conflicts over tariffs and rare earth minerals. Regarding trade, Trump acknowledged on Thursday that the relationship with China had become “a little off track,” but stated that now “we’re in very good shape with China and the trade deal.” He noted that further negotiations would take place “shortly” at “a location to be determined.” It remains uncertain whether this call will lead to lasting trade harmony and, importantly, to the shipments of vital minerals required by US businesses.
The major macro event today will be the US Non Farm Payrolls release, with the market currently anticipating just over two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for the remainder of 2025. Goldman Sachs believes “the optimal scenario for stocks today would be a stronger-than-expected report—within a reasonable range of strength. Ideally, the headline number falling between 150k and 200k. A figure below 100k would raise concerns about a potential economic slowdown, likely putting downward pressure on stocks, especially following this week’s weaker data. Conversely, a headline print in the 300k range could trigger a "good data is bad for stocks" reaction, as it may give the Fed more reason to delay rate cuts. A notably weak report would likely have a more detrimental effect on the stock market than an overly strong one. Retail investors have been consistently buying stocks throughout the year, and we don't anticipate this trend changing anytime soon. Based on our data, we believe the only scenario in which retail investors might shift from buying to selling is if job losses become evident”.
Overnight Headlines
Fed Officials Signal Inflation Risks Still Dominate, Argue Against Cuts
Goldman Sachs Reins In Risk Appetite Amid Market Volatility
US Treasury: BoJ Should Continue Tightening To Rebalance Yen
US Treasury Releases FX Policy Report On Major Trading Partners
Trump Hints At Lowering SALT Cap In GOP Tax Bill
Trump Threatens To Revoke Elon Musk’s Federal Contracts
Musk Calls For Trump’s Impeachment As Tesla Tanks Below $1T Cap
Trump Says Russia, Ukraine May Need To ‘Keep Fighting’
Netanyahu Confirms Israel Arming Gaza Clans To Undermine Hamas
Israel Strikes Lebanon In One Of Largest Attacks Since Ceasefire
Iran Orders Missile Materials From China Despite Ongoing Talks
Lululemon Cuts Profit Outlook As Tariffs Raise Costs
Broadcom Sales Jump On Booming AI Demand
UK Bans Bonuses At Thames Water, Five Other Utilities
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1350 (1.1BLN), 1.1370-75 (826M), 1.1400 (2.4BLN)
1.1420-25 (580M), 1.1450 (1BLN), 1.1475 (438M), 1.1500 (3.2BLN)
1.1530 (1BLN), 1.1550 (1BLN), 1.1600 (1.3BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.8250 (470M), 0.8300 (415M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8420-30 (730M)
GBP/USD: 1.3450-60 (761M), 1.3470-80 (201M), 1.3600 (413M)
AUD/USD: 0.6470 (321M), 0.6500-10 (595M)
USD/CAD: 1.3600 (1.1BLN), 1.3625 (225M), 1.3660 (660M), 1.3745-60 (1.2BLN)
USD/JPY: 142.00 (2.1BLN), 142.40 (250M), 142.50-60 (944M)
142.95-143.05 (780M), 143.50 (505M),1.4365 (380M), 143.95-144.00 (875M)
144.50 (674M), 145.00 (776M), 145.75-80 (1BLN), 146.00 (1.4BLN)
CFTC Data As Of 30/5/25
The net long position in Japanese yen stands at 164,012 contracts, while the euro net long position is at 79,474 contracts. The British pound holds a net long position of 35,379 contracts. Conversely, the Swiss franc indicates a net short position of -25,483 contracts, and Bitcoin shows a net short position of -2,274 contracts.
Equity Fund Managers have reduced their net long position in the S&P 500 CME by 17,892 contracts, bringing it down to 854,528 contracts. Moreover, Equity Fund Speculators have decreased their net short position in the S&P 500 CME by 39,763 contracts, resulting in a total of 257,465 contracts.
Speculators have also cut their net short position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 18,143 contracts, which now stands at 53,890 contracts. Similarly, CBOT US Ultrabond Treasury futures' net short position has been lowered by 12,663 contracts to 233,472 contracts. The net short position for CBOT US 2-Year Treasury futures has been trimmed by 147,428 contracts to reach 1,119,903 contracts. Additionally, the net short position for CBOT US 10-Year Treasury futures has been reduced by 81,827 contracts to 769,604 contracts. On the other hand, speculators have increased their net short position in CBOT US 5-Year Treasury futures by 57,296 contracts, leading to a total of 2,333,237 contracts.
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Pivot 5900
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 5900 target 6100
Below 5800 target 5610
EURUSD Pivot 1.11
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 1.11 target 1.19
Below 1.1060 target 1.09
GBPUSD Pivot 1.3290
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 1.3290 target 1.38
Below 1.32 target 1.31
USDJPY Pivot 147
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 147.10 target 148.26
Below 146.53 target 139
XAUUSD Pivot 3365
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 3400 target 3600
Below 3365 target 2981
BTCUSD Pivot 105k
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 105k target 118k
Below 103k target 100kPublication date:
2025-06-06 12:54:07 (GMT)
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