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S&P 500 Futures Slip as Global Tensions Flare

Key Points - S&P 500 futures decline after Fed holds rates, signals two 2025 cuts - Markets unsettled as Trump mulls possible military strike on Iran US equity futures retreated on Friday, with the S&P 500 giving up part of the week’s gains as fresh geopolitical concerns weighed on sentiment. After a relatively calm stretch, risk aversion resurfaced as reports suggested President Donald Trump is actively considering a military response to Iran’s nuclear programme, with a decision expected within two weeks. The broader mood was dampened by the Federal Reserve’s recent policy decision, which left interest rates unchanged but shifted guidance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a notably cautious tone, citing multiple headwinds including the fallout from Trump’s renewed tariff policies, unstable inflation expectations, and rising global risks. The central bank’s revised projections now anticipate two rate cuts in 2025, up from one previously. Growth estimates were revised lower, while inflation was marked slightly higher, reflecting the uncertainty introduced by geopolitical frictions and trade tensions. Despite this, the major US indices are still on track for mixed weekly performance. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite remain modestly in positive territory, bolstered by earlier gains in tech and energy sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, is slightly in the red. Technical Analysis The S&P 500 is currently attempting a relief bounce after sliding from a local high of 6023.6 to a low near 5920.98. On the chart, we see a clear bearish channel in play through much of June 19–20, with lower highs and lower lows driving the correction. However, bulls have stepped in just above the 5920 handle, initiating a rebound that has carried price back toward the 5965–5970 resistance zone.

Picture: SP500 eyes breakout after sharp intraday recovery, as seen on the VT Markets app The moving averages (5, 10, 30) are now beginning to converge and curl upward, suggesting short-term momentum is recovering. This aligns with a positive crossover in the MACD, supported by a strong expansion in the histogram. Momentum remains positive, though the histogram is beginning to flatten—suggesting this leg higher could face headwinds soon. Resistance lies just ahead near 5980, followed by the psychological 6000 level and strong overhead resistance at 6012–6023. A failure to break past 5980 may lead to another test of the 5940 region or possibly a double-bottom near 5920.98. Developments in the conflict between Israel and Iran will likely steer price action in the near term. Should the Trump administration move forward with military involvement, markets could see heightened volatility and a rotation into safe havens. Conversely, any signs of diplomatic de-escalation might stabilise sentiment and revive risk appetite. Until then, traders are likely to remain cautious, adjusting exposure in light of global uncertainty and the Fed’s evolving policy path.

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Publication date:

2025-06-20 11:58:14 (GMT)

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