Retail Sales (MoM)

Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.

Most recent - Thursday 15 May 2025 12:30

Previous
1.4%
Revised
1.5%
Forecast
0%
Actual
0.1%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Tuesday 17 June 2025 12:30

Previous
0.1%
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for Retail Sales (MoM) yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Retail Sales (MoM) was 0.1% against a forecast of 0%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Thursday 15 May 2025 12:30
0%
0.1%
Wednesday 16 April 2025 12:30
1.3%
1.4%
Monday 17 March 2025 12:30
0.7%
0.2%
Friday 14 February 2025 13:30
-0.1%
-0.9%
Thursday 16 January 2025 13:30
0.6%
0.4%
Tuesday 17 December 2024 13:30
0.5%
0.7%
Friday 15 November 2024 13:30
0.3%
0.4%
Thursday 17 October 2024 12:30
0.3%
0.4%
Tuesday 17 September 2024 12:30
-0.2%
0.1%
Thursday 15 August 2024 12:30
0.3%
1%
Tuesday 16 July 2024 12:30
0%
0%
Tuesday 18 June 2024 12:30
0.2%
0.1%
Wednesday 15 May 2024 12:30
0.4%
0%
Monday 15 April 2024 12:30
0.3%
0.7%
Thursday 14 March 2024 12:30
0.8%
0.6%
Thursday 15 February 2024 13:30
-0.1%
-0.8%
Wednesday 17 January 2024 13:30
0.4%
0.6%
Thursday 14 December 2023 13:30
-0.1%
0.3%
Wednesday 15 November 2023 13:30
-0.3%
-0.1%
Tuesday 17 October 2023 12:30
0.3%
0.7%
Thursday 14 September 2023 12:30
0.2%
0.6%
Tuesday 15 August 2023 12:30
0.4%
0.7%
Tuesday 18 July 2023 12:30
0.5%
0.2%
Thursday 15 June 2023 12:30
-0.1%
0.3%
Tuesday 16 May 2023 12:30
0.7%
0.4%
Friday 14 April 2023 12:30
-0.4%
-1%
Wednesday 15 March 2023 12:30
-0.3%
-0.4%
Wednesday 15 February 2023 13:30
1.8%
3%
Wednesday 18 January 2023 13:30
-0.8%
-1.1%
Thursday 15 December 2022 13:30
-0.1%
-0.6%
Wednesday 16 November 2022 13:30
1%
1.3%
Friday 14 October 2022 12:30
0.2%
0%
Thursday 15 September 2022 12:30
0%
0.3%
Wednesday 17 August 2022 12:30
0.1%
0%
Friday 15 July 2022 12:30
0.8%
1%
Wednesday 15 June 2022 12:30
0.2%
-0.3%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Retail Sales (MoM) result:

PreviousLatest
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBullish change47.958.4
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change52.260.5
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBearish change6.6%5.1%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change4.2%4.1%
Initial Jobless Claims(no change)248K248K
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.2%0.1%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.5%2.6%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bullish change-0.2%0.1%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bearish change3.2%3%
Monthly Budget StatementBearish change$258B$-316B
Consumer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.2%0.1%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.3%2.4%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bearish change0.2%0.1%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(no change)2.8%2.8%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(no change)3.9%3.9%
Labor Force Participation RateBearish change62.6%62.4%
Nonfarm PayrollsBearish change147K139K
U6 Underemployment Rate(no change)7.8%7.8%
Unemployment Rate(no change)4.2%4.2%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change239K247K
Nonfarm ProductivityBearish change-0.8%-1.5%
Unit Labor CostsBullish change5.7%6.6%
Challenger Job CutsBearish change105.441K93.816K
ISM Services Employment IndexBullish change4950.7
ISM Services New Orders IndexBearish change52.346.4
ISM Services PMIBearish change51.649.9
ISM Services Prices PaidBullish change65.168.7
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change52.153
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change60K37K
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change3.4%-3.7%
JOLTS Job OpeningsBullish change7.2M7.391M
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change46.546.8
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change47.247.6
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change48.748.5
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change69.869.4

About Retail Sales (MoM)

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Census Bureau
Category:Consumption
Frequency:Monthly
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