Retail Sales (YoY)

The retail Sales released by the National Statistics measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

Next event - Tomorrow 06:00

Previous
5%
Forecast
1.7%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on GBP pairs is medium.

The consensus forecast for Retail Sales (YoY) is 1.7%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for GBP/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/GBP pairs.

Most recent - Friday, 23 May 06:00

Previous
2.6%
Revised
1.9%
Forecast
4.5%
Actual
5%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for GBP/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/GBP pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Retail Sales (YoY) was 5% against a forecast of 4.5%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
23 May 2025 06:00
4.5%
5%
25 April 2025 06:00
1.8%
2.6%
28 March 2025 07:00
0.5%
2.2%
21 February 2025 07:00
0.6%
1%
17 January 2025 07:00
4.2%
3.6%
20 December 2024 07:00
0.8%
0.5%
22 November 2024 07:00
3.4%
2.4%
18 October 2024 06:00
3.2%
3.9%
20 September 2024 06:00
1.4%
2.5%
16 August 2024 06:00
1.4%
1.4%
19 July 2024 06:00
0.2%
-0.2%
21 June 2024 06:00
-0.9%
1.3%
24 May 2024 06:00
-0.2%
-2.7%
19 April 2024 06:00
-
0.8%
22 March 2024 07:00
-0.7%
-0.4%
16 February 2024 07:00
-1.4%
0.7%
19 January 2024 07:00
1.1%
-2.4%
22 December 2023 07:00
-1.3%
0.1%
17 November 2023 07:00
-1.5%
-2.7%
20 October 2023 06:00
0%
-1%
22 September 2023 06:00
-1.2%
-1.4%
18 August 2023 06:00
-2.1%
-3.2%
21 July 2023 06:00
-1.5%
-1%
23 June 2023 06:00
-2.6%
-2.1%
26 May 2023 06:00
-2.8%
-3%
21 April 2023 06:00
-3.1%
-3.1%
24 March 2023 07:00
-4.7%
-3.5%
17 February 2023 07:00
-5.5%
-5.1%
20 January 2023 07:00
-4.1%
-5.8%
16 December 2022 07:00
-5.6%
-5.9%
18 November 2022 07:00
-6.5%
-6.1%
21 October 2022 06:00
-5%
-6.9%
16 September 2022 06:00
-4.2%
-5.4%
19 August 2022 06:00
-3.3%
-3.4%
22 July 2022 06:00
-5.3%
-5.8%
24 June 2022 06:00
-4.5%
-4.7%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been strongly bearish for GBP. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Retail Sales (YoY) result:

PreviousLatest
Consumer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change1.2%0.2%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3.5%3.4%
Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3.8%3.5%
Retail Price Index (MoM)Bearish change1.7%0.2%
Retail Price Index (YoY)Bearish change4.5%4.3%
Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBearish change3.4%3.2%
Gross Domestic Product (MoM)Bearish change0.2%-0.3%
Industrial Production (MoM)Bullish change-0.7%-0.6%
Manufacturing Production (MoM)Bearish change-0.8%-0.9%
Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)Bearish change5.5%5.2%
Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)Bearish change5.6%5.3%
Claimant Count ChangeBearish change-21.2K33.1K
Claimant Count RateBearish change4.4%4.5%
Employment Change (3M)Bearish change112K89K
ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)Bearish change4.5%4.6%
BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)Bearish change6.8%0.6%

About Retail Sales (YoY)

Country:United Kingdom
Currency:GBP
Source:Office for National Statistics
Category:Consumption
Frequency:Monthly
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